It is expected that the demand for battery aluminum foil will reach 43% CAGR by 2025

Positive collector aluminum foil is used in ternary batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries, sodium ion batteries and so on. Therefore, when we measure the demand for battery aluminum foil, we should distinguish between different battery systems. According to the data of Xinyue Lithium battery, each GWh ternary battery requires 300-450 tons of battery foil, and each GWh lithium iron phosphate battery requires 400-600 tons of battery aluminum foil; In sodium-ion batteries, aluminum foil is used in both positive and negative terminals, and the demand for aluminum foil in the negative collector fluid is higher than that of the positive terminal, so the amount is higher, and the sodium battery requires 700-1000 tons of aluminum foil per Gwh. Power batteries are the main driving force for the current lithium battery installed capacity, and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations in the first half of the year, which is one of the few high-boom industries under the impact of the epidemic. Since entering 2022, there have been a number of adverse factors in the new energy passenger car market, such as the decline of subsidies, a sharp rise in upstream prices leading to downstream transmission, and the epidemic seriously affecting the normal production of the automobile industry chain. However, after the end of the epidemic in Shanghai, automobile manufacturers produced at full capacity, and downstream sales were hot due to the purchase tax reduction factor, and the industry prosperity not only rebounded quickly, but even exceeded that before the epidemic in April 2022. Under many interfering factors, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in China from January to June 2022 still reached 2.59 million, an increase of 117% year-on-year; Every month since March 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 20%, and in April it even reached a record high of 25.3%, and the electrification of vehicles has accelerated.

The commercialization of sodium ion batteries is imminent, which will further increase the demand for battery aluminum foil. The main advantage of sodium-ion batteries is low cost, not subject to resource constraints, with the maturity of relevant technologies and industrial chains, the cost is expected to further decline, is expected to have a good prospect in electric two-wheel vehicles, low-speed electric vehicles, energy storage, start-stop and other application scenarios. According to the latest estimates of EVTank, theoretically sodium-ion batteries in the case of 100% penetration, in 2026 the market space can reach 369.5GWh; Under this scenario, considering that the amount of battery aluminum foil for sodium-ion batteries is about 800 tons /GWh, the amount of battery aluminum foil will reach 295,600 tons in 2025.

It is expected that by 2025, the total global demand for battery aluminum foil will reach 825,000 tons, and the four-year CAGR growth rate will reach 43%. According to the aforementioned data, the total global demand for battery aluminum foil in 2021 is 195,000 tons, of which 143,000 tons of power batteries, 9,000 tons of energy storage, and 43,000 tons of consumer electronics. It is expected that by 2025, the total global demand for battery aluminum foil will reach 825,000 tons, and the four-year CAGR growth rate will reach 43%. Among them, 659,000 tons of power batteries, 98,000 tons of energy storage, and 69,000 tons of consumer electronics.